The results of the Byblos Bank/AUB Consumer Confidence Index for the first quarter of 2019 show that the Index regressed by 10.4% in January 2019 from December 2018, increased by 13.6% in February and decreased by 2.5% in March 2019. Further, the Index averaged 75.5 in the first quarter of 2019 and was unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2018. The Byblos Bank/AUB Present Situation Index averaged 66.4 and the Byblos Bank/AUB Expectations Index averaged 81.6 in the first quarter of 2019, with the two sub-indices nearly unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2018. In addition, the average monthly score of the Index in the first quarter of 2019 was 28.7% lower than the quarterly peak score of 105.8 registered in the fourth quarter of 2008, and remained 22% below the annual peak of 96.7 reached in full year 2009. 

Household sentiment was directly correlated to the political developments that took place in the first three months of 2019, as the January drop reflected the repeated false alerts about an imminent announcement of the new Cabinet. But the formation of the government at the end of January, after nine month of political deadlock, led the Index to jump in February. Further, the decline in March shows that Lebanese citizens consider that the government’s formation in itself is not sufficient, as citizens need to see concrete evidence and tangible solutions that would improve their economic well-being in order to raise and sustain their confidence level.