Lebanon This Week 560

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Lebanon This Week 560

November 10, 2018
Lebanon This Week 560

Countries with Highest Net Wealth per Capita in UMICs (US$)

Source: Credit Suisse, Byblos Research

 

  • Total net private wealth in Lebanon at $140.4bn at end-June 2018, 62nd highest worldwide
    Global investment bank Credit Suisse estimated the aggregate net wealth of Lebanese citizens at a record high of $140.4bn at the end of June 2018, constituting an increase of 2% from $137.6bn a year earlier. Lebanon's total private net wealth stood at $103.2bn at the end of 2010, regressed to $95.2bn at end of 2011, and has been gradually rising ever since. The aggregate net wealth of Lebanese citizens at the end of June 2018 was the 62nd highest among 174 countries and jurisdictions, and the 11th highest among 19 Arab countries. It was also the 16th highest among 48 upper middle-income countries (UMICs) included in the survey.

    Credit Suisse defines a country's net wealth as the sum of its population's marketable value of financial and non-financial assets less its aggregate personal debt, with non-financial assets consisting mainly of real estate holdings. It excludes a country's stock of human capital as well as its stock of public assets and liabilities, such as the public debt. The investment bank provided annual data for the period between 2000 and 2016, and semi-annual figures for 2017 and 2018.

    The total net wealth in Lebanon included $86.1bn in financial wealth at the end of June 2018 that increased by 0.7% year-on-year, $96.2bn in non-financial wealth that grew by 6.9% from a year earlier, and $42bn in personal debt that rose by 10.8% from end-June 2017. American citizens had the world's highest aggregate net wealth at $98.2 trillion, while citizens of Saudi Arabia accumulated $977bn as at the end of June 2018, highest in the Arab world.

    Further, net wealth per capita in Lebanon stood at $23,056 at the end of June 2018, up by 1.3% from $22,766 at end-June 2017, and compared to a peak of $23,801 at the end of 2010. Lebanon's net wealth per capita was the 54th highest globally, the fourth highest among UMICs and the eighth highest among Arab countries at the end of June 2018. Switzerland has the world's highest net wealth per capita at $424,382, while Qatar is the wealthiest Arab country on a per capita basis.
     

  • Fiscal deficit at $3bn in first half of 2018, equivalent to 34% of expenditures
    Figures released by the Ministry of Finance show that the fiscal deficit reached $3bn in the first half of 2018 compared to a deficit of $907.6m in the same period of 2017. The deficit was equivalent to 33.8% of total budget and Treasury expenditures compared to 13% of spending in the same period last year. Government expenditures reached $9bn and grew by 28.8% from the first half of 2017, while revenues regressed by 2% year-on-year to $6bn. As such, the widening of the deficit reflects a rise of $2bn in overall expenditures and a decrease of $119.1m in total revenues in the covered period. The growth in spending is due to an increase of $1.3bn in general budgetary expenditures, an expansion of $343.4m in debt servicing cost, and a rise of $341m in transfers to municipalities in the covered period.

    On the revenues side, tax receipts declined by 3.2% year-on-year to $4.6bn in the first half of 2018, of which 27.2%, or $1.2bn, were in VAT receipts that increased by 9.7% year-on-year. Tax receipts accounted for 84.2% of budgetary revenues and for 76.9% of total Treasury and budgetary receipts. Further, non-tax budgetary receipts decreased by 17% year-on-year to $860.3m. They mainly included $442.3m in revenues generated from government properties that fell by 33.2% year-on-year, as well as $317m in receipts generated from administrative fees and charges that grew by 5.3% year-on-year. Receipts from telecommunication services dropped by 26.1% to $318.3m. They accounted for 72% of income from government properties and for 37% of non-tax budgetary revenues in the covered period. The Finance Ministry did not disclose the reason for the decline in telecom receipts.

    On the expenditures side, total budgetary expenditures, which include general expenditures and debt servicing, increased by 25.7% to $8bn in the first half of 2018. General spending expanded by 33.7% year-on-year to $5.2bn, and included $1bn in outlays from previous years that rose by 31.3% year-on-year and $738.4m in transfers to Electricité du Liban that grew by 32.8% annually, among other general spending items. Also, debt servicing totaled $2.9bn in the first half of 2018 and increased by 13.5% from the same period of 2017. Debt servicing accounted for 32.1% of total expenditures and for 35.6% of budgetary spending, while it absorbed 48.5% of overall revenues and 53.1% of budgetary receipts. Further, Treasury transfers surged by 66.7% to $884.4m in the covered period, as transfers to municipalities grew from $102.2m in the first half of 2017 to $443.2m in the same period of this year. The primary budget balance posted a surplus of $217.4m in the first half of 2018, or 2.7% of budgetary expenditures, while the overall primary balance posted a deficit of $155.4m, or 1.7% of spending.
     

  • Fitch Ratings affirms Byblos Bank's ratings at 'B-', outlook 'stable'
    Fitch Ratings affirmed at 'B-' Byblos Bank's long-term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) and maintained its 'stable' outlook on the ratings. It also kept the Bank's Viability Ratings at 'b-' and the Support Rating at '5'. It indicated that the Bank's long-term IDRs are driven by its intrinsic strengths and that the 'stable' outlook mirrors the outlook on the sovereign. It said that the ratings are capped by the sovereign's creditworthiness due to the Bank's substantial holdings of government debt and of Certificates of Deposits issued by Banque du Liban (BdL), as well as by the prevailing operating environment. 

    The agency indicated that Byblos Bank is the third largest bank in the country, with assets accounting for about 10% of the banking sector's aggregate assets. It said that the Bank has a strong domestic franchise that supports revenue generation and deposit growth. It added that the Bank's experienced management has demonstrated its ability to implement well-articulated and consistent strategic objectives. It pointed out that the Bank's balance sheet is well-balanced between liquid and non-liquid assets. But it considered that the Bank's exposure to the sovereign and BdL as unavoidable amid the decline in domestic lending opportunities. 

    Further, Fitch said that Byblos Bank has prudent underwriting standards for loans, with acceptable diversification by economic sector and single obligor. It indicated that Byblos Bank's loan book is resilient, with low problem loan generation and a stable non-performing loans (NPLs) ratio that compares well with similarly-rated peers. 

    In addition, it pointed out that Byblos Bank's balance sheet is very liquid, with a loans-to-deposits ratio of about 30%. It added that the Bank's placements at BdL and its holdings of sovereign securities underpin its liquidity flexibility. It noted that the Bank's deposits have been historically stable and well-diversified, which mitigates liquidity maturity mismatches. 
     

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